The real odds of winning Powerball and Mega Millions, explained
Powerball's jackpot odds are about 1 in 292 million and Mega Millions' are about 1 in 290 million. Here's the simple combinatorics behind those numbers, and an intuitive sense of just how large they are.
TL;DR
- Powerball jackpot odds: ~1 in 292,201,338.
- Mega Millions jackpot odds: ~1 in 290,472,336 under the current 1–24 Mega Ball matrix.
- The odds come from multiplying the ways to pick the white balls by the ways to pick the special ball.
The formula
Jackpot odds are just combinations. For Powerball you choose 5 white balls from 69 and 1 red ball from 26:
- Ways to pick 5 of 69 = 11,238,513
- Ways to pick 1 of 26 = 26
- Total = 11,238,513 x 26 = 292,201,338
Mega Millions works the same way: 5 of 70 white balls x 1 of 24 Mega Balls.
How big is 292 million?
If every ticket were a second, 292 million seconds is more than nine years. Picking the jackpot combination on one ticket is like pointing at a single second across nearly a decade.
What this means for players
No strategy — hot numbers, cold numbers, birthdays, or Quick Pick — changes these odds. Choosing less-common numbers won't help you win, but it can reduce the chance you'd split a jackpot with others. Treat play as entertainment with a fixed budget.
Dig into the numbers
Each game's Odds page lists the full prize-tier table and the exact combinatorics.
Frequently asked questions
- Are Mega Millions odds better than Powerball?
- They are very close. Mega Millions is about 1 in 290 million and Powerball about 1 in 292 million for the jackpot.
- Do my odds improve if I buy more tickets?
- Only marginally. Ten tickets make it about 1 in 29 million for Powerball — still extraordinarily unlikely.